Prologis 4Q22 Takeaways
"While we tend to quote occupancy, it is notable that the portfolio is 98.6% leased, a record that underscores the tightness across our markets."
"Market rent growth exceeded expectations in 4Q, increasing our lease mark-to-market to a record 67%. Same-store growth of 7.7% (net effective) and 9.1% (cash)."
"Conditions remain healthy and there is little we see across our results or proprietary metrics that point to a meaningful slowdown."
"Deliveries will put modest upward pressure on vacancies from 3.3% today to 4% later this year; however, new starts are slowing in response to market conditions."
"Capital markets transactions continued to be slow in 4Q, making price discovery challenging. That said, return requirements are trending to the low to mid-7% range."
"Our US values, which are appraised by third parties every quarter, declined 6% in 4Q and 7% over 2H22."
"Secular forces and long term planning by customers should limit the impact from a significant / protracted recession. Out 2023 forecast calls for 10% rent growth in the US and average occupancy of 97% (midpoint), roughly 50 bps lower YOY.""
"In the 40 years I've been in this business, this is the biggest disconnect that I've seen between the macro economy and the prospects for our business".
